Aviation efficiency gains and innovation will not be enough to limit emissions growth. Demand for air travel needs to be damped
“Come on, stop calling us polluters.” That was the shocking message of denial from the head of the International Air Transport Association at a summit that took place this month as it emerged that rising numbers of passengers are shunning flights because of the climate emergency. Consumers are voting with their feet. Too many perhaps for barely profitable airlines, but too few to shift the corporate inertia surrounding an environmental crisis. The trend may accelerate as planetary disaster unfolds. The industry needs a better strategy than burying its head in the sand.
With ice sheets vanishing from the roof of the world and fjords disappearing in the North Atlantic, Big Air must first accept the scale of the problem. Aviation needs to be part of the global commitment to phase out fossil fuels and limit catastrophic temperature rises. Industry emissions are growing faster than original forecasts. This year, for the first time, global aviation emissions passed the one gigatonnes of CO2 mark. The industry contributes about 3% of annual global emissions but could be a 10th or more of the total by 2050. The second step needed is a radical new plan that goes far beyond the current Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation. This scheme only covers 75% of the industry, and experts calculate that a significant reduction of emissions from flying will be needed by 2030 to keep warming below 2C.