2020 REPORTS AND PAPERS

In 1988, NASA scientist James Hansen warned lawmakers in the U.S. Senate of the looming dangers presented by global warming which humans were accelerating. The same year, the United Nations (UN) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) formed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to report to world leaders on the science of climate change.

Two years later, in 1990, the First IPCC Assessment Report (FAR) was published, underlining the importance of climate change as a challenge with global consequences and requiring international cooperation. It was followed by the 2nd (1995), 3rd (2001), 4th (2007), 5th (2013-2014), and 6th (2021-2023) assessment reports. 

By 2020, several key climate reports highlighted the ongoing impacts of climate change, including record-breaking temperatures, extreme weather events, and rising greenhouse gas levels. These reports showed that 2020 was one of the warmest years on record, with continued increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and significant disruptions to the Arctic and other regions. 

A LITTLE POLITICAL BACKGROUND

• U.S. signs the Paris Agreement

  On December 12, 2015 in Paris at the United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP 21, the now-infamous Paris Agreement was written with an objective to combat climate change and to accelerate and intensify the actions and investments needed for a sustainable low carbon future. It entered into force on November 4, 2016 by which time it had been ratified by 55 countries (accounting for 55% of global emissions). Within the following two years 197 countries signed on, including the U.S.

• U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement

  In the summer of 2017 President Trump announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the Paris Agreement. On November 4, 2019 the U.S. submitted formal notification of its withdrawal to the UN. On November 4, 2020, the withdrawal took effect. Polls show the majority of voters opposed the withdrawal. In response, 24 governors formed the U.S. Climate Alliance of members committed to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.

KEY REPORTS

• NASA produced a video reporting on the dangers. By most accounts, 2020 was a rough year for the planet. It was the warmest year on record, just barely exceeding the record set in 2016 by less than a tenth of a degree according to NASA’s analysis. Massive wildfires scorched Australia, Siberia, and the United States’ west coast – and many of the fires were still burning during the busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record. 
• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) State of the Global Climate report highlighted that 2020 was one of the three warmest years on record, despite the cooling influence of La Niña. The report also emphasized that the decade 2011-2020 was the warmest on record, with the six warmest years all occurring since 2015. The report detailed a continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, rising ocean temperatures and acidification, and the increasing frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves. 
• In August, 2021 the latest revised version of the NOAA State Climate Summaries was released, confirming that 2020 was among the three warmest years in records dating to the mid-1800s, even with a coolingLa Niña influence in the second half of the year. The interactive website provides a wealth of information on how climate change will affect each American state. The summaries present observed and projected changes in temperature, precipitation and sea level for each state, with key message takeaways and detailed data and figures.
  FYI: NOAA produces monthly and annual climate reports, impressive for their immense scope, detail, and readability. These reports include national overviews, analyses of temperature and precipitation, overviews of billion-dollar climate disasters, and regional highlights. 
• The UN Environment Program (UNEP) has produced the Emissions Gap Report since 2010 which focuses on the difference between where greenhouse emissions are predicted to be in 2030 and where they should be to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. In December, 2020 they concluded that the world is still heading for a temperature rise in excess of 3°C this century – far beyond the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C.

SOME GOOD NEWS

A note of real optimism came from The Goldman school of Public Policy in Berkeley, California: Assuming the U.S. takes some real action “it. can achieve 90% clean, carbon-free electricity nationwide by 2035, dependably, at no extra cost to consumers, and without new fossil fuel plants. On the path to 90% over the next 15 years, America can inject $1.7 trillion into the economy, support a net increase of more than 500K energy sector jobs each year, and reduce economy-wide emissions by 27%. This future also retires all existing coal plants by 2035, reduces natural gas generation by 70%, and prevents up to 85,000 premature deaths by 2050. But without robust policy reforms, this future will be lost.”