PEOPLE

Climate change is causing increasing migrations for all life on Earth. Climate change is causing migration through both sudden, extreme events like hurricanes and wildfires, and slow-onset processes like drought, sea-level rise and desertification. These environmental pressures lead to economic insecurity, destroy homes and livelihoods, and make areas uninhabitable, forcing people to move, often from rural to urban areas, or across borders.  

ARE THERE CURRENTLY ANY UNINHABITABLE PARTS OF THE EARTH?

• 1% of the Earth is considered a “barely livable” hot-zone. By 2040, that portion could reach 19%. Areas most affected by extreme heat will be in the south.
• More than 1/3 of the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu arrived in early December 2025 to Australia, hoping to find a new home, as theirs is at risk of rising sea levels.
• Amid a deepening ecological crisis and acute water shortage, Tehran, the current capital of Iran, will have to move south.10 million people will be displaced.

HOW WILL CLIMATE AFFECT MIGRATION?

Climate displacement is expected to increase with rising sea levels and growing frequency of severe weather events like drought, extreme heat, wildfires and flooding.

WHERE WILL PEOPLE GO?

• Higher average temperatures and increased frequency of extreme weather events will force people to move to more ‘climate stable’ regions in the north.
• The projected number of migrants traveling north from Central America and Mexico will rise to 1.5 million a year by 2050, from more than 700,000 in 2022 as climate change impacts, particularly on the agricultural sector, and hotter weather drives poverty.
• Under the current scenario of increasing greenhouse gas emissions, an estimated 13 million people in the U.S. are expected to have their homes inundated as a result of rising sea levels by the end of the century. They will relocate inland.

WILL IT ONLY BE PEOPLE WHO MIGRATE?

No. 

• The environmental instability that drives human migration also is transforming the migration patterns of animals. Entire ecosystems are either migrating or collapsing, and these changes reverberate throughout the animal kingdom. 
• And, as temperatures rise due to climate change, many plants will have to move to cooler locations to survive, often relying on birds and other wildlife to carry their seeds.

WHAT OTHER EFFECTS DOES MIGRATION HAVE?

Climate migration in the US triggers substantial consequences, not only through the physical devastation brought by severe weather events. It also compounds inequalities, including socio-economic status, health and overall well-being, putting them at risk of deterioration. 

IS MIGRATION INEVITABLE?

Migration is a logical consequence of changing environmental conditions and is considered a wise adaptation strategy. 

In 2018, the World Bank estimated approximately 143 million people will be displaced due to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and South Asia. This number reflects only a fraction of displacement and does not recognize the situation in the United States at all. It does underscore the expectation that disadvantaged regions will bear a greater burden of climate change and therefore it is imperative for migration policy to adapt to these changing migratory conditions. ‘

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?

The extent to which the worldwide landscape is changed is hugely dependent on carbon emissions, which is largely reliant on whether or not policies are passed that structurally enforce a rapid decline in emissions. 

HOW DOES THIS AFFECT FUTURE EVOLUTION?

Ultimately, the decision to migrate is complex, involving a mix of individual, household and community-level factors, but climate change is a powerful and growing force in this dynamic, pushing millions from their homes and spurring discussions about new policies and legal protections for climate migrants. With climate migration comes societal transformation and the acute need for capable leadership who can prepare for these inevitable changes.