The world population was 8 billion in 2022 and projected to be 9 billion by 2037. At the moment, nearly a quarter of all planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions come from food production and croplands. By 1937, with this projected increase in population and shifts to higher-meat diets (global meat and diary consumption are set to increase by nearly 70%), agriculture alone could account for the majority of the emissions budget for limiting global warming below 2°C (3.6°F). This level of agricultural emissions would render the goal of keeping warming below 1.5°C (2.7°F) impossible. To meet the demand of population growth and richer diets, the amount of crops grown will need to double by 2050. How can this be achieved while simultaneously reducing the environmental impact of agriculture?
Farmers can’t plant much more land, because almost every accessible acre of arable soil is already in use. Clearing tropical forests and grasslands to grow crops has already caused mass biodiversity loss globally. Nor can the use of fertilizer be increased; it is already being overused everywhere except some parts of Africa, and the runoff is polluting rivers, lakes, and oceans. Irrigation, too, cannot be greatly expanded—most land that can be irrigated already is.
Charles Mann, in a piece he wrote in The Atlantic in 2018, tackled this seemingly insurmountable problem dividing the world into those who would say, “cut back” from those who would say “innovate.”
Scientific innovations in agriculture, developing more sustainable eating habits, and exploring alternative food sources are some possible solutions, along with a commitment to environmental justice to ensure that changes do not exacerbate long-rooted inequalities.
CREDIT: EPA