In 2025, the state of recycling in the United States is characterized by a significant “say-do gap.” While a majority of Americans express strong support for recycling, the national recycling rate remains stubbornly low, hovering around 32%.
China’s ban on importing waste, lower oil prices making virgin plastics cheaper, and overall low demand from manufacturers has led to depressed prices for recycled materials like paper and plastic, making recycling less profitable and infrastructure investment difficult. High contamination (food, non- recyclables) makes bales impure, increasing processing costs, while fluctuating global demand and cheaper new materials disincentivize using recycled content.
We have lost the markets we used to have when we were shipping our recyclables to China, Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Kenya and Senegal to name a few countries which used to take our plastics, and often our glass, cardboard and paper. One waste management executive warned that many cities will suffer because collected material now “doesn’t have a place to go.” Hundreds of US cities killed or scaled back their recycling programs — as of early 2023,over 110 municipalities have cancelled their curb side recycling programs altogether, the majority due to cost.
WasteDive has compiled a timeline of the changes to recycling procedures in all 50 states.
WHERE DOES IT NOW GO?
The lack of a market absolutely upended our recycling industry. We can still find a market for some items (cardboard, for example, if it isn’t contaminated with Styrofoam) but, for the most part, municipalities now pay to have the rest removed from their recycling centers. We don’t make it easy for these centers, throwing non-recyclable items in with recyclable items, contaminating one category of recyclables with another. The result is that much ends up in the ocean, in landfills, or incinerated. Incineration and waste-to-energy plants have been associated with toxic emissions, while landfills emit a slew of harmful pollutants — carbon dioxide, methane, volatile organic compounds, and others. Oceans are filled with plastic waste.
ANY RELIEF IN SIGHT?
National recycling policies may provide relief. Find a legislative tracker of these bills at WasteDive.
Another solution revolves around the circular economy, specifically, the circular plastics economy in which more plastic is both reused and bought. Many consumer brands such as Coca- Cola and Nestlé have announced plans to use recycled plastic in their manufacturing.
KEY STATISTICS AND TRENDS (2025)
- National Rate: The overall U.S. recycling and composting rate for municipal solid waste (MSW) is approximately 32%, a figure that has remained relatively steady for nearly a decade.
- Public Opinion: Approximately 77% of Americans say they currently recycle, and 87% believe it is important for the environment, indicating high public interest. But the “say-do” gap persists.
- State Disparities: There are significant differences in recycling rates across states due to varied laws and infrastructure.
- Plastic Capacity: A March 2025 study revealed that existing mechanical recycling facilities for plastics have significant unused capacity and could process nearly 2 billion more pounds of plastic annually if more material were collected.
- Battery Recycling Growth: There have been major investments and facility openings in 2025 to boost the domestic recycling capacity for lithium-ion batteries and other critical minerals.
- Aluminium Success: The aluminium can recycling system is a relative success, with an average new can made of 73% recycled content.
MAJOR CHALLENGES
- Consumer Confusion and Contamination: The primary barrier is a lack of clear, consistent rules across municipalities, leading to confusion over what is recyclable and high rates of contamination of recycling streams with non-recyclable items (like food residue or plastic bags).
- Lack of Access/Infrastructure: Inconsistent access, particularly in rural areas or dense urban apartments, and the cost of transport and processing can result in materials being landfilled even when residents want to recycle them.
- Market Fluctuations: Recycling economics can be challenging; municipalities often need to sell materials to recoup costs, and market shifts can make the process unprofitable.
OPPORTUNITIES AND SOLUTIONS
The industry and policymakers are working on several fronts to improve the system:
- Education: There is a high public interest in learning more about what to recycle and what happens to materials after pickup. Improved education is seen as a major opportunity to improve sorting practices.
- Corporate Influence: Consumers are more likely to buy products from companies that use recycled content or provide in-store recycling options. This is driving consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies to make stronger commitments.
- Technology & Policy: Advanced sorting technologies using AI and robotics are being adopted. The EPA is working on national infrastructure maps and goals, aiming for a 50% recycling rate by 2030, and policies like Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) and potential regulations around greenwashing are influencing change.
