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Category: REPORTS_NATIONAL_ACADEMY_2020

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Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades

By James P. Kossin, View ORCID ProfileKenneth R. Knapp and more

Tropical cyclones (TCs), and particularly major TCs, pose substantial risk to many regions around the globe. Identifying changes in this risk and determining causal factors for the changes is a critical element for taking steps toward adaptation. Theory and numerical models consistently link increasing TC intensity to a warming world, but confidence in this link is compromised by difficulties in detecting significant intensity trends in observations.

06/02/20